Truth of Indian Economy | Who can forget the claim and promotion of India’s ‘five trillion’ economy? While giving the budget speech of 2019-20, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman several times talked about making the country a ‘five trillion dollar economy’ in the next five years. The next day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing BJP workers in Varanasi, had called it a big goal of the country.
Responding to this, former Finance Minister and economist P Chidambaram had said, that this is a very attractive slogan but there is no magic in it. Then he also said that after five years from that date in 2028-29, we will become a 10 trillion dollar economy and then after five years we will become a 20 trillion dollar economy.
There is no magic in this. Any lender who deals with interest knows this. If GDP grows about 12 percent per year, the economy will double in six years. Despite this, there was a lot of publicity about the five trillion economy. According to the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund, it is now estimated that what was estimated for 2024-25 will occur in 2026-27. That’s why there is silence on this.
Now it claims to be the third economy in the world but obviously, everything depends on GDP and it is the employment-business situation that does not grow due to people getting free ration during unemployment. In such a situation, the current condition of the economy is a serious question.
Recently there was news that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that India’s debt has become so much that it is a matter of concern. There is a possibility that shortly it may even exceed India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In such a situation, the IMF has expressed concern about its long-term stability.
The government does not agree with this warning. According to a news published in Mint, the government says that despite various shocks in the global economy during the last two decades, India’s debt-GDP ratio has increased from 81 percent in 2005-06 to 84 percent in 2021-22. Which again became 81 percent in 2022-23.
According to the news of NDTV.in, most of the loans are in Indian rupees so there is no problem. But debt is debt and if it exceeds the income potential then it is certainly a matter of concern and it cannot be that the IMF’s alert is meaningless or unnecessary. According to reports, the IMF has said in its annual report that due to so much debt, India is facing long-term risks.
The total debt of the country is more than Rs 205 lakh crore. It was Rs 200 lakh crore in March 2023 and has increased by Rs 5 lakh crore in the last 6 months. Even if this is normal, where is this money being spent, why are these expenses not being reduced and if we keep taking loans like this, then how will we return them and in this situation how much money will be spent to build highways and new buildings? Will money be needed and increase government expenditure? Right, this should be discussed. But instead of telling everything clearly, the government is comparing it with the figures of 2002.
The simple question is why 2002 and not 2014 or 2019? When the matter is based on GDP and GDP was badly affected after demonetization in 2016, then why not compare with 2016 or 2002, then what is the point of not having data in between?
Earlier all this was published normally, the government used to say, that questions could be asked but now efforts are being made to falsify even the IMF report. According to a news in The Wire, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said that her government is considering measures to reduce debt and is keeping an eye on the measures being taken in emerging market economies.
In such a situation, India is also facing challenges in improving its credit rating because the level of debt is high and the expenses related to it are also huge. Needless to say, this situation is not only due to Narendra Modi’s economy but also due to demonetization and GST. In English, it is called ‘Modinomics’ etc., but the basic issue is that before Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister in January 2014, P Chidambaram had said about his economics knowledge that it was equivalent to writing on the back of a postage stamp.
Then he said that he is learning and I am sure he will learn soon. But in later situations, their learning is under doubt and the matter of concern is that somehow the work is going on.
If the media had told all this then the public would have understood that Narendra Modi’s promises are not being fulfilled but he is trying to take advantage of his guarantee by linking it to the corruption of Congress. Despite the opposition calling their party a washing machine party, a campaign is going on to brand Congress as corrupt and an attempt has been made to take advantage of the recovery of Rs 350 crore from the properties of Congress MP Dheeraj Sahu by terming it as black money related to corruption.
There is no definite information about him yet. In such a situation, if serious interference like demonetization and GST had not been done, the country’s economy would have remained the same. To compensate for this, Narendra Modi is still claiming to end corruption and has said, he is the guarantee of scams, I have taken action against the scammers. Since then he has been promoting Modi’s guarantee.
Modi’s guarantee is becoming an election slogan. Whereas asking questions about Adani is becoming difficult. However, the ups and downs of the stock market depend on the performance of the economy and investments. But now people are happy with the fluctuations in Adani’s shares and it is increasing, but the stock market figures do not show the real picture of the economy.